The 2024 future scenario in hindsight

Last year our scenario predicted that we will increasingly, have to decide whether news is true or fake. The recent presidential polls in America underscores this fact. Depending on the news you read or TV you see, it was either a neck and neck race or Trump was leading by a mile. After more than a 1000 days of war between Ukraine and Russia we are precluded to see Russian TV broadcasts and it is not easy to determine whether the news we are presented is true, fake or misinformation.

Zuckerberg abandons Facebook censorship for X-Like Community Notes is the current headline news. A month after Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg met with Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort he announced that Facebook is getting back to grass roots free expression as "'fact-checkers were too politically-biased'.

Community Notes is a feature originally introduced by X (formerly Twitter) to provide additional context to tweets. This system allows users to collaboratively add notes to tweets that might be misleading or require more context. The idea is to leverage the collective knowledge of the community to enhance the accuracy and reliability of information shared on the platform.

Just like they do on X, Facebook's Community Notes will require agreement between people with a range of perspectives to help prevent biased ratings.

Where does this leave AI? Will AI present us with different perspectives and you make the choice or will AI decide what is fake news or misinformation?

A recent article in The Conversation said that: ..."While still in their training wheels, the large language models (LLMs) used to create chatbots like ChatGPT are being recruited to spot fake news. With better detection, AI fake news checking systems may be able to warn of, and ultimately counteract, serious harms from deepfakes, propaganda, conspiracy theories and misinformation."

Magda Osman, a Professor of Policy Impact at the University of Leeds continues: ..."There are likely to be cases, as has been reported in a recent survey, where the news content may not be completely false or completely true, but partially accurate. We know this because the speed of news cycles means that what is considered accurate at one time, may later be found to be inaccurate, or vice versa. So, a fake news checking system has its work cut out."

Eventually our grasp of what is true may depend on our perceptions. Philosophers have long debated the nature of truth and perception. Some argue that there is an objective truth independent of our perceptions, while others believe that truth is subjective and constructed by our experiences.

You decide!

We also predicted that China will lead the way in EV production and sales. In 2024, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for approximately 16.5% of the global automotive market. This marks a continued increase in EV adoption, driven by consumer preferences, technological advancements, and government incentives.

In our 2025 scenario we see the rapid increase in humanoids and that factories will run with less labour and more robots driving the price of cars much lower than the U$11,000 announced for the BYD Qin Plus DM-i. This plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) model was launched with a starting price of 79,800 yuan (approximately $11,000). The Qin Plus DM-i is designed to be affordable while offering competitive features and performance compared to gasoline-powered vehicles. You will remember that we mentioned that Warren Buffet has been investing in BYD since 2008. (Click on the Voronoi image on the left to see how insignificantly small South Africa is in the bigger picture)

We also looked at electricity from radio waves and Maxwell Chikumbutso who proclaimed that he designed a device that generates energy in the form of a microwave that can be transformed into electrical power.

That seemed to be fake news but there has been significant progress in the field of wireless electricity transmission, these include laser, microwave and capacitive coupling. The last method uses electric fields to transfer power between metal electrodes and is used in some low-power applications such as charging cell phones.

Read our 2025 scenarios and how humanity are on the brink of a disruption that will transform our civilisation for better or worse. Humanoid robots will be driven by AI and displace labour in factories, agriculture and all repetitive tasks worldwide. As robots drive the cost curve down, the clean energy U-Curve will see surplus energy,  new forms of transportation and modern proteins will be cheaper than current food options.

Are you prepared for the next 10 years?

Compiled by Bert van den Heever

Disclaimer: This article is the personal opinion/view of the author(s) and is not necessarily that of the ASAQS